Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. 2011; Funk et al. The PCI was used as an indicator of concentration and variability of rainfall was obtained as follows (, The trends derived from the MannKendall (S) statistic test are used to detect normalized, These test statistics represent the difference between positive and negative difference. Do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia? In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than 1%. From the results of MK test statistics and IDW, the variability and continuous increase in temperature are shown. 2014). However, during bega season the trend of all stations was downward. Such studies ignored the localized trends of rainfall and temperature, particularly in most highlands of Ethiopia. 2012). Simulations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model indicate that a drier and warmer future will shift the location of snow line to higher elevations and reduce the number of days with precipitation falling as snow. 2005). The variation inthe amount of solar radiation received daily is small throughout the year. The High altitudesand the windward side experience such rainfall amount.ii. Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. Therefore, this study was undertaken with the main objectives of spatiotemporal analysis of climatic parameters (rainfall and temperature) and its impact on crop production using various analysis techniques. It is one of the most widely used non-parametric statistical tests to check the trend of randomness against the detection of trends over time (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975). 2013). Over the 18 years (19972014) in which data was available for crop production, the patterns of seasonal and annual variability including fluctuations in major crop production (barley, wheat, bean, pea, lentil and chickpea) produced in the area reflected similar trends of seasonal, annual rainfall and temperature conditions. ; ed. 33 days from submission to first decision on average. The rate and variability of increasing temperature have dramatically increased, making it more difficult for local communities to foresee the intensity and magnitude of temperature even for the next few years. The calculated PCI for seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2. Discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia. In contrast to the kiremit season, the five years' moving average annual rainfall of the bega season during the period 19802014 was highly variable. The steepness of these trends generally falls between 0.22 and 0.47 on Sens slope estimator at a significance level of 5%. Back to Lesson. Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis (Conway & Schipper 2011). 2015). Continuously increasing temperature, together with the variability and fluctuation of seasonal and inter-annual rainfall is a root cause for the decrease and fluctuation of crop production. The variation for the belg season is presented in Figure2. Autumn (September, October and November)Autumnis the season of the year between summer and winter. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. Here are the average temperatures. The mean annual rainfall of the basin spatially varies from 417 to 1012 mm, with a noticeable temporal variation at a monthly time scale. Specifically, we examine and evaluate multi-model, multi-scenario climate change projections and seven extreme temperature and precipitation indices over the eastern Himalaya (EH) and western Himalaya-Karakoram (WH) regions for the 21st century. The production of beans was below 18-year mean in nine years out of 18 years production periods, as indicated in Table5, which accounts for 50% of the total bean production; while in respect of kiremit rainfall pea, chickpea, and lentil production (50, 50 and 55.5% respectively) were below the 18-year mean. Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporal variabilities. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of the Basin experienced declining trends on annual and seasonal timescales. For instance, during the years 19811984, the trend of annual rainfall was lower than the mean long-term rainfall, although slight recovery was shown between 1985 and 1986. To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). Is it warming or cooling? In this regard, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a widely used method employed by many scholars across the globe (Oliver 1980; Apaydin et al. (2012) found that due to global climate change the eastern part of Africa, including Ethiopia, was drying out. Awareness creation: The communities in the watershed are dependent on the natural climate, therefore the availability of climatic information is a precondition to enable them to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climatic variability. Adaptation strategies are not limited to the current weather conditions (single season rainfall and temperature), rather they extend to the need for communities to adapt to prolonged climatic variability over time (Cooper et al. 2013; Pachauri et al. Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. 2005). 2007; Fu et al. The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards. The annual average temperature of the area is 19.7 C. Months in summer gainhighest rainfall whereas the winter months receive the reduced amount. 2015; Wagesho & Yohannes 2016). The possible reason may be monthly, sub-monthly time scale, temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature, which are determinant factors of production. The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. Global warming has become the greatest barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity. How can we respond to the changing climate? The focus of this research is to introduce the application of the polynomial neural network of the group method of data handling (GMDH) for the first time in the regional area of the New South Wales state of Australia. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. Southern part ofEthiopia receives highest records of temperature in autumn and spring following the relativeshift of the sun; whereas in the northern part of the country, summer season is characterized byhigher temperature.It has to be noted that certain seasons should have special considerations. On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. Barley, wheat, horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops. This statistical test is a popular and important tool in detecting the trend used by many other scholars for related applications (Hirsch et al. During the winter season, the Redsea escarpments and some parts of the Afar region receive their main rain. Moving average rainfall and temperature can be obtained by using the following equation: Inverse distance weighted interpolation methods (IDW) have been used in order to analyse annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. Therefore, community-based soil and water conservation practices help the communities to diversify their livelihood activities. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of. The study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N. Latitude,humidity and winds, with varying magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia. However, in the belg season during the period 19802014 the five years' average moving annual and seasonal rainfall was considerably variable. Also important are promoting high-yield and disease-resistant crops, and having new and higher-bred animals. Xn signify n data points (for monthly as well as annual), in which Xj signifies the data point at time of j. During this season, the south easterliesfrom Indian ocean showers the lowlands in southeastern part of Ethiopia.iii. The results from the coefficient of variations shown in Table2 revealed that in comparison with the kiremit rainfall season, during the bega and belg seasons rainfall varies considerably more. Registration confirmation will be emailed to you. Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 December 2019; 10 (4): 799817. 2016). During this time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterliesbring moist winds. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. In administrative terms, it is located in Basona Worena District, in the North Showa zone of Amhara regional state (Figure1), situated 180 km northeast of the capital city, Addis Ababa. The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set. The annual maxima of 1 d and consecutive 5 d precipitation are also projected to increase. 2005; Batisani & Yarnal 2010; Randell & Gray 2016). In line with the study by Wu et al. 3.1 Spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia. As presented in Table3, the Sen's slope estimator indicates an upward trend in four stations and a downward trend in three stations for annual rainfall. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. The trend of increasing maximum temperature is stronger than the minimum temperature. Five years moving average temperature (19802014). Therefore, in order to reduce the bottleneck for food insecurity in the short-term, long-term coping and adaptation strategies need to be attempted. In this study, we analyse global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate the qualitative aspects of change and trends in temperature and precipitation indices. The indicators included in this study are based on many different information sources. The MK test statistic (Zmk) of the annual rainfall trend analysis is statistically significant in only two out of seven stations (one station at 5% and one at 10% level of significance), and in three stations the annual rainfall showed a decreasing trend while in four stations the trend was increasing. Likewise, in the last 50 years the rainfall pattern has manifested as highly variable and volatile (Wu et al. Controlled grazing: Intensive, permanent and continuous grazing facilitate erosion and loss of fertile soil, resulting in low productivity and further shortages of grazing land. Tmean, the mean annual temperature; Tmin, minimum annual temperature; Tmax, maximum annual temperature. The location of Ethiopia at close proximity to equator, a zone of maximum insolation,resulted for every part of the country to experience overhead sun twice a year. For most developing countries of the world, agriculture is the basis of the economy. 2013; Muhire & Ahmed 2015). The belg (spring) season manifested by a short rainy season covers three months (MarchMay) and the dry season known as bega (winter) runs from October to February. Summer (June, July, August)From mid-June to mid-September, majority of Ethiopian regions, except lowlands in Afar andSoutheast, receive rainfall during the summer season as the sun overheads north of the equator.High pressure cells develop on the Atlantic and Indian Oceans around the tropic of CapricornAlthough, the Atlantic contributes a lot, the Indian Oceans is also sources of rainfall. Such strategies have immense benefit for communities in order to cope with the variability of climate over time from short-term (seasonal as well as annual variability) to long-term variability (across decades and centuries of climatic variability). Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. The correlation between rainfall during the months of MaySeptember and crops has a positive relationship, except in the cases of beans, peas and chickpeas, which are inversely correlated with rainfall during the month of June. A numerical experiment where the values of T dew are altered to compensate for the RH error suggests that eliminating the atmospheric moisture bias could, in and of itself, decrease runoff up to 14 % in high-altitude regions east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, and reduce estimated Colorado River runoff at Lees Ferry up to 4 % by the end of the century. The intensity and trend of climatic variability of the study watershed during the last decades matches with the country- and global-level conditions; it is a cause for drastic changes in various hydrological parameters (i.e. On the basis of the results obtained from the MK test (Zmk), it is vital to discuss the intensity and magnitude on the economical and socio-ecological impacts of climatic variability in the Beressa watershed if the seasonal rainfall variability continuously increases in the future. The average rainfall inthe region varies from 1,400 to over 2,200 mm/year.iii. Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. To determine the weighting the following general formula was employed (, Adapting to Climate Change: Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction, Background paper to the Task Force on Climate Change, Adaptation and Vulnerable Communities, Coping with drought among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia, Climate change adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: foundations for the future, Climate Change-Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, Beyond the Famine: an Examination of the Issues Behind Famine in Ethiopia, International Institute for Relief and Development and Food for the Hungry International, Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers perception, Trending regional precipitation distribution and intensity: use of climatic indices, Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change, Annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in Ethiopia, Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Karamoja, Centennial rainfall variation in semi arid and tropical humid environments in the cardamom hill slopes, southern Western Ghats, India, Micro-level Analysis of Farmers Adaption to Climate Change in Southern Africa, International Food Policy Research Institute, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. 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