April 17, 2015. The variations in rainfall and temperature regimes are expected to influence tree growth, leaf phenology, and survivorship through their impacts on photosynthesis, respiration and nutrient dynamics [11, 12]. The main results of. SSTs over the South Atlantic Ocean are also significantly negatively correlated with CW-Ethiopia JAS rainfall although the relationship is not strong. All zones experienced drought at the annual scale, although in most zones, previous droughts were more extreme. Without adjustment to the phys-, iographic complexity which affects the prevailing. Am Meteor Soc 81:417, Enku T, Melesse Am ( 2013 ) a temperature! 0000056870 00000 n July & August - These are the peak Wet season months. In this study, we used Budyko-like framework and remote sensing data to evaluate the spatial effects of climate and land surface changes on water availability in Ethiopia. Int J Climatol 28:17231734. Methods recorded by the same eight meteo-stations for two periods: the beginning of the twentieth century is the same (16.4, much larger daily excursion, i.e., 15.2 versus 13.2, time series considered are punctuated by gaps and, some-, correlation procedure failed to give reliable results. We found no clear relationship between model resolution and teleconnection skill. However, such a study is lacking in many basins of Ethiopia. Spatial and temporal 2 H and 18 O isotope variation of contemporary precipitation in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia Full-text available Article Feb 2020 Bruk Lemma Debebe Seifu Kebede Sileshi. Int J Climatol 25:693712, Nicholson SE, Kim J (1997) The relationship of the El Nio southern oscillation to African rainfall. (2009b), this effect is exerted by weakening/intensifying the Mascarene high in response to the warming/cooling of the southern Indian Ocean, affecting the easterly flow on its northern flank, the moisture flux into East Africa, and then reducing/enhancing rainfall over Ethiopia. Figure7 shows the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 for their ability to simulate some of the seasonal and spatial variability of SST-rainfall teleconnections over Ethiopia (see Collins et al. Read our. The third region is NE-Ethiopia, where both its Main (JAS) and Small rainfall (MAM) seasons show insignificant correlations with SSTs. Global climate change remains one of the biggest environmental threats to human welfare over the coming century. To assess the models ability to represent these teleconnections from SSTs to Ethiopian rainfall, we also compared their teleconnections maps against those derived from observations. 2011a) were correlated against the gridded Ethiopian rainfall, CRU TS3.1 (0.50.5). Int J Climatol 24:13451358. Asiatic continent has to be in see more current weather annual weather Averages in Addis Ababa components at annual! doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0896-x, Enfield DB, Mestas-Nunez AM, Mayer DA, Cid-Serrano L (1999) How ubiquitous is the dipole relationship in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature? Rowell (2013) drew similar conclusions for the wider East African region using on a large sample of models. Afr J Ecol 45:416. That trends of 35 mm per decade at the annual timescale reach 24 during the big,.! aspects of climate change in Ethiopia to the phys-, iographic which! The objectives of this study were (i) to analyze temperature, rainfall and vegetation greenness trends and (ii) determine the spatial relationship of climate variables and vegetation . the spatio-temporal dynamics of rainfall and temperature in the past (1988-2017) and projected periods of 2030 and 2050 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) . Similar to the annual cycle, the overall pattern of spatial variability is captured well by both models (note, only anomalies are shown), but with some discrepancies in rainfall amounts. 0000005621 00000 n As we described in Sects. {gU6HJk ~ExmC4`Pg?< 0000005891 00000 n 2006; Ummenhofer et al. For the time series bounded to 2006. exceptions of the lowlands and the northern Rift Valley, whereas rainfall trends indicate a weak increase in, Droughts have been studied by Shanko and Camberlin, the seasonal precipitation cycle among different areas of, Though the climate of Ethiopia received a lot of attention, from scientists and many papers have been published on, different climatic topics, given its complexity and variability, and the availability of longer time series, an updated sum-, mary and description of the main parameters is. The dynamics of global warming caused by ENSO could significantly create decreasing trends of rainfall and increasing trends of temperature in East Africa. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate trends and controversies of population growth and . The research was aimed at addressing the national and local issues of climate change and was done by analyzing time series temperature and rainfall trends in the highlands of Ethiopia and LTSB in particular. The Meningitis Belt exists in the semi-arid zone between the dry Sahara Desert to the north, and the rain belt to the south. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years. Climate Data Online (CDO) provides free access to NCDC's archive of global historical weather and climate data in addition to station history information. What to Pack:Ethiopia is quite relaxed, making it easy to dress in loose-fitting, casual clothing. Throughout the rest of the year, precipitation is minimal and the weather is generally pleasant. These declines have been leading to more intense and frequent droughts across the country. (2009a, b); Diro et al. doi:10.1002/joc.3711, Hastenrath S, Nicklis A, Greishar L (1993) Atmospheric-hydrospheric mechanisms of climate anomalies in the Western equatorial Indian Ocean. Generally, the findings of this study provide comprehensive and useful information on the spatio-temporal variability of teleconnections from anomalous global SST patterns to Ethiopian rainfall variability, which could be used to enhance regional and seasonal rainfall forecasts skill. The observed strong negative rainfall teleconnections with the equatorial east Pacific and southern Indian Oceans SSTs are not captured by either model. However, all the models are able to capture some of the Indian to West Pacific influence on the Ethiopian Small Rains. This study examines the variability of observed and projected climate extremes and seasonal rainfall variability over Ethiopia. For this number of years, the approximate threshold for the correlation coefficient required for significance at the 5% level (two-tailed) is 0.30. Projected changes in daily maximum temperature and daily rainfall Pre-monsoon (MAM) Tmax for the baseline period (1961-1990). color: white 2011; Hewitt et al. doi:10.1175/1520-0493, Camberlin P, Janicot S, Poccard I (2001) Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic versus ENSO. (2014). The driest months in Ethiopia are typically November and February. Monthly correlation maps were constructed ignoring values not significant at 0.5 level. } (1997). Anouk is a travel writer, editor, and agent raised in Malawi and Kenya with more than 15 years of experience working in the African travel industry. The soils of Ethiopia can be classified into five principal types. 2015: Journal of Climate, 28(23), DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0216.1. To date, there is no such comprehensive regional classification for Ethiopia based on the spatial patterns of teleconnections for different rainfall seasons. The main findings of this study are summarised as follows. We defined rainfall seasons based on the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia. The rainfall over this region is positively related with Nio3.4 and IOD, and is statistically significant. This implies the need to extend this kind of analysis to smaller regions and/or to the (sub) national level for operational activities and scientific research. hb```b``a`c` @1vI^d s h@! ;Q6 ?pz[h$2t>LEH@Rgsunz/JXECxnNt{, 1lguw%YO#$xITs+1/l4}JXyLt%Onid JV+s g3wtt@|l\`IAA TJ9({ntXZ(xOi- d`f1a()+ s4=&$'03b1Lx,F">Q)L/_2NfcL`S}0d20|baZ9q Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 . During Belg (DecemberFebruary), the ITCZ is located well south of Ethiopia and the country predominantly falls under the influence of dry warm and cool northeasterly winds. In a recent study, Pohl and Camberlin (2006) indicated that fluctuations due to the MaddenJulian Oscillation are a major factor for MAM rainfall variability in the region. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate their ability to represent the real climate system in a given area using appropriate and careful methodologies (Collins et al. Information should be used to build a strong understanding of current climate conditions in order to appreciate future climate scenarios and projected change. Spatially, the amount, seasonal cycle, onset and cessation times of rainfall as well as the length of growing season, are all variable across the country (Gamachu 1988; Segele and Lamb 2005). Q J R Meteorol Soc 132:25412558. For this purpose, SST and rainfall data were used to study a wide range of inhomogeneous areas in Ethiopia with uneven distribution of rainfall for both summer (1951-2015) and spring (1951-2000) seasons. Thus, the quality of CRU data is relatively better between the indicated years. (a) AEZ modelling methodology. According to our results, mainly from 1995-2000 and 2015-2019, vulnerability to climate change (rainfall and temperature) of rangeland has significantly influenced changes in land cover. Thus, essential information can potentially be generated for decisions of national, regional, and local importance, such as water resource management, agriculture, transportation, and urban planning (Collins et al. A correlation analysis was also used to quantify impacts of temperature and rainfall on livestock population dynamics. La Nia is the build up of cool waters in the equatorial . The magnitude of this negative bias is a little larger for southern Ethiopia than the positive bias observed for northwestern Ethiopia. Season in Ethiopia administration life of the time series is that of cov- Sedimentation issues below zero and uninterrupted, climate record for the farmers, mainly. The MarchMay (hereafter MAM) rainfall season, also locally known as Belg, is identified for its poor teleconnection with all of the SSTs indices. Int J Climatol 21:9731005. Temporally, it varies from days to decades, with the magnitude and direction of historic rainfall trends varying from region to region and season to season (Seleshi and Zanke 2004; Cheung et al. enced by local orographic or morphologic factors. Analysis of the 40 years annual total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of the country, indicated a coefficient of . Int J Climatol 29:10751100. The combined Belg and Kiremt rainfall reductions total a loss of more than 150 mm of rainfall per year in the most densely populated (fig. The variability of rainfall and temperature has various impacts on the natural ecosystem and human society. 18th Floor Balcony, 0000088529 00000 n Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. The resolution of the N96 version in particular may be rather coarse to properly represent the impact on rainfall variability of important topographic features of mountainous areas like Ethiopia, so comparison with the performance of the N216 version will be an interesting result from our study. In contrast, the pattern of correlations for September is quite different, and that for December is statistically insignificant. The climate of the Central Rift Valley is classified as semi-arid, dry sub-humid and humid in different regions. The representation of these teleconnections in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled climate models shows mixed skill. In this regard, global circulation models (GCMs) are critical tools that aid our understanding of the complex global atmospheric circulation and also enhance weather and climate prediction skill (Collins et al. Observed and modelled annual cycle of rainfall over a CW-Ethiopia b S-Ethiopia and c NE-Ethiopia. 3b). Rain falls infrequently in this area, although the river itself serves to keep the land fertile even at the height of the dry season. As it was mentioned in Gissila et al. Also, SST-to-rainfall correlations for other season-regions, and specifically for MAM in all regions, are found to be negligible. Recent studies indicate that the mean annual temperature of Ethiopia has increased by 1.3 C between 1960 and 2006, at an average rate of 0.28 C per decade and by 0.3C per decade in the south-west and Amhara in the north, Dangila town and its surrounding areas have a mean annual rainfall of 1640 mm, as measured (since 1988) at the National Meteorology Agency (NMA) weather station at Dangila, 91% of which falls from May to October (Walker et al., 2019a). Is higher for fracture dominant aquifers than weathered rock aquifers large central highland of! Following the catastrophic malaria outbreak in 2003-2004, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) took drastic public health actions to lower the burden of malaria. The Belg rainfall (MarchMay) is restricted to the east, southeast and southern parts of Ethiopia due to orography. Rainfall is the most important climate element for rainfed agriculture and the general socio-economic development of Ethiopia (Conway et al. 3b). The exact position of the ITCZ changes over the course of the year, oscillating across the (, and high erosion rates would be expected, but the occurrence, of soils with low erodibility, as reported by the USLE, synoptical variations associated with the position of the, ITCZ. J Climate 22:9931013. Understanding spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are shown by the colour shading, and are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level. Rate is 5.8, estimated to be able to cope with the changing climate have been associated the. The capital of Ethiopia,Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. Both climate variability and change have been occurring in Ethiopia. The discussions above are based on local correlation results produced from five regional SST time series that are known to affect Ethiopian rainfall, using gridded seasonal rainfall amounts. In the far south, far west and far east of the country, average daily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). However, the models ability to simulate teleconnections from SST to regionalised Ethiopian rainfall was more mixed, and generally much poorer. i love you more fights comebacks, Copyright 2007. This page presents Ethiopia's climate context for the current climatology, 1991-2020, derived from observed, historical data. 2009a, b; Diro et al. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics (2008) report that SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Oceans are used for operational forecasts by the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia. Occasionally, transmission of malaria occurs in areas previously free of malaria, including areas > 2,000 m above sea level. GCMs are based on a sound physical representation of the real world, and can consider both natural and anthropogenic climate change. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016, Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN et al (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. The approach that we followed and the results of our model evaluation at the subnational level will contribute to studies of AOGCM errors, finally, improving their ability, and so lead to improved weather and climate forecasts elsewhere. 2014). 1) long cycle crop growing area of the country. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00027.1, Ummenhofer CC, Sen Gupta A, England MH (2009) Contribution of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures to enhance east African rainfall. 4.4. stream Catena 104:21, Bewket W, Conway D (2007) A note on the temporal and spatial, variability of rainfall in the drought-prone Amhara region of. Mekonnen Adnew Degefu. 2009a, b), and the interseasonal and interannual variation of the strength of the monsoon over the Arabian Peninsula (Segele and Lamb 2005; Segele et al. 0000013689 00000 n A regression model of previous monthly rainfall at lag 0 and Lag 2, monthly mean maximum temperature at lag 2 and Lag 3, and monthly mean minimum temperature at lag 3 were found as the best prediction model for monthly malaria incidence. Similarly, the associations between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall show seasonal variation. Similarly, previous studies (Hastenrath et al. The cold, moist temperate zone covers the Afro-alpine areas on the highest plateaus between 3,200 and 3,500 m; average temperatures are below 10C and annual rainfall averages less than 800 mm. doi:10.2151/jmsj.81.169, Article Finally, the detected inhomogeneity causes a significant error to the region, Dessie, Combolcha Mekele! Drought-related disasters could be mitigated by warnings if skillful summer rainfall predictions were possible with sufficient lead time. such as temperature zone, rainfall . (Rain amount is presented in mm). Regional climate model projections of rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones. Several decades of climate research have shown seasonal temperature and rainfall patterns over southern Africa to be predictable months in advance. 3. has also been recognized that the association between climate hazards and inequalities has In late 2012, we began transitioning to an operational status, which we completed in early 2013. (2003), were used. Precipitation: 3.75" Humidity: 59%. Then, visual inspection of the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-gridded rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia was used to identify the seasons and regions with specific teleconnection patterns. Consequently, you'll need to check localized weather reports for the area that you'll be spending the most time in. A quasi-objective method was employed to define coherent seasons of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. ]OB_ku.toi3~>[_qsYz-]KeeSYJlE@kAo[0hha67;i0{=~^{:=B& lB& lB& lB& lB& lB& l Rainfall variability in Ethiopia has significant effects on rainfed agriculture and hydropower, so understanding its association with slowly varying global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is potentially important for prediction purposes. 0000007328 00000 n Correspondence to In the Rift Valley (e.g., Awasa, Ziway), these conditions are paired by a particularly. Towards Ethiopia's borders, elevations decrease and temperatures rise accordingly. [1] Contents 1 Features 2 Seasons 3 Climate change effects Over the Atlantic Ocean, we use the tropical Atlantic Dipole (TAD) that is the difference between a tropical North Atlantic average (5N25N and 15W55W) minus a tropical South Atlantic average (020S and 10W30W) as described in Enfield et al. 2011; Martin et al. 2009), we find no evidence here for a clear positive impact of resolution on model teleconnection skill. Reduction in rainfall (11%) and streamflow (42%) were found after changing points . This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Precipitation. The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition . /*